In recent months, I have increasingly encountered statements claiming that “hydrogen has failed” or that the “hydrogen bubble has burst.” In my view, such assessments miss the point. What we are witnessing is not the end of hydrogen, but rather the end of a phase of exaggerated expectations.

The hydrogen economy has never evolved as a single topic, a single technology, or a single market. From the very beginning, it has consisted of a set of highly diverse segments, each with different dynamics, timelines, and levels of technological and economic maturity. This is becoming increasingly evident today.

Hydrogen Is Not One Market

When we talk about hydrogen, the discussion is often reduced to a simple question: “Does it work, or does it not?”
In reality, hydrogen represents a complex ecosystem of interconnected areas, including:

  • different hydrogen production pathways,

  • infrastructure and logistics,

  • specific applications in industry, transport, and energy,

  • regulation, certification, and financial instruments.

Each of these areas is at a different stage of development. While some technologies have been highly visible in recent years, others are progressing more quietly—but often in a far more systematic manner. Assessing “hydrogen” as a single, uniform concept therefore inevitably leads to distorted conclusions.

From Ambition to Feasibility

The period between 2021 and 2023 in Europe was characterised by strong ambitions: strategies, targets, political declarations, and announcements of large-scale projects. This phase was both necessary and important. At the same time, it was inevitable that some of these plans would collide with reality—namely with:

  • cost structures,

  • regulatory requirements,

  • infrastructure availability,

  • and, above all, insufficient demand.

For this reason, I would not describe the current phase as a slowdown, but rather as a phase of consolidation. The market is shifting from visions to very concrete questions:

  • Who will actually offtake hydrogen?

  • Under what conditions?

  • And which projects are truly investment-ready, rather than merely conceptual?

The Key Role of Offtake

Based on my experience, success today depends less on the technology itself and far more on clearly defined use cases. Projects that have a secured offtaker, strong links to existing industry or infrastructure, and a realistic business model stand a significantly higher chance of success than isolated projects without a clear demand anchor.

This is precisely where the market is beginning to differentiate. And this is also why the current phase is challenging for many companies and investors—yet at the same time strategically decisive.

Consolidation as a Necessary Phase of Development

Every technological transformation goes through a phase in which expectations are separated from feasibility. Hydrogen is no exception. The current phase does not represent a failure of the concept, but rather a necessary step toward transforming pilot projects into stable operations and individual initiatives into a functioning system.

For companies and project developers, this means carefully selecting next steps, minimising risks, and building partnerships that make sense in the long term—not only on paper.

What Will Be Decisive Going Forward

The future development of the hydrogen economy will not be determined by the number of strategies or by media visibility. What will matter is the ability to:

  • connect production, infrastructure, and end use,

  • operate within the existing regulatory framework,

  • and prepare projects that remain viable even beyond subsidy schemes.

Hydrogen remains an important tool for decarbonisation—not as a universal solution, but as part of a broader energy and industrial system.

Conclusion

The hydrogen sector has reached a point where the distinction between promises and reality is becoming clear. For those willing to work with this reality, this is paradoxically a very strong and promising phase. It is precisely now that it becomes evident which projects have a solid foundation—and which will remain at the level of expectations only.

Kristýna Váchalová
Hydrogen Business Development
✉️ info@hyconnect.eu
🌐 www.hyconnect.eu